Today is Jobs Report Tuesday at 8:30 AM EST instead of a Friday due to the political clown show delay. The consensus is 180K jobs and a 7.3% unchanged unemployment rate. Last month added 169K. These jobs numbers are sickening, unable to even keep up with the new entries into the work force each month for several years now fueling the ongoing structural unemployment problem. Tragically, the American youth are idle with 6 million 16 to 24 year olds either not working or not going to school. What a different world it is considering that Keystone started working at 12 years old. As Bob Dylan says, the 'times are a changin'. As the U.S. changes course and adopts European socialism (no offense to all our friends across the pond), the U.S. then, to no surprise, looks more and more like Europe each day. The Jobs Report will likely not make a lot of difference. Traders are fully convinced that the Fed will remain accomodative with QE Infinity well into March 2014. This is why the uber bullish euphoria is in place for equities currently--no one sees any possibility of market downside for the next one-half year. Isn't that something? You know what happens when the boat is fully loaded to one side.
President Obama offers nothing new concerning the Obamacare debacle in his speech yesterday. He will not provide details on what is actually wrong or the number of folks that actually signed up. He says no one is more angry about the debacle then him but tell that to a person in poor health desperately trying to sign up and seek help. The president spent one-half billion dollars on web sites that do not work and now he tells everyone to use the telephone to call 1-800-318-2596 to sign up. Folks offer anecdotal stories of now being told that the necessary personal information cannot be communicated through the phone lines and another person was told to go to the website, which comically is the reason that folks are now having to call the telephone number. What a mess. The poor and disadvantaged should be helped at the State and local levels since the needs are far better understood at the community level, just as the Founding Fathers realized two centuries ago. The money can be used far more effectively locally focusing on individual needs rather than lining the politician's pockets and paying for their Washington booze parties.
AAPL releases the new iPad today. Richmond Fed Mfg Index is 10 AM. Notable earnings releases include AKS, AMGN, COH, DAL, DD, EMC, FCX, ITW, JNPR, KMB, LMT, NBR, PNRA, UTX and WHR. The semiconductor, retail and financial sectors continue to support the equity markets so watch these for any hint of weakness. ARMH, the chip darling, reports good news in Europe this morning but the stock is soft. Yesterday the VIX was up and the SPX was up so one of them was wrong. The battle continued and the day ended flat absorbing the recent upside energy. The SPX daily chart prints a doji candlestick that hints at a trend change. A follow through to the downside would be needed today to confirm the trend change. The coming days will be interesting considering the uber bullish euphoria in the markets currently as evidenced by the low CPC and CPCE put/calls.
Keybot the Quant is long but is now in position to flip short. If the SPX drops under 1741 and stays under, Keybot will likely flip short. UTIL is under 498 and GTX is under 4888 creating bear fuel and a cap in the market upside. Watch copper, JJC 40.19. If this fails, the algo will likely flip short. Bulls need to keep copper elevated and to push utilities and commodities higher to continue the upside party. For the SPX today starting at new all-time highs at 1745, the bulls need to touch the 1748 handle and it will be a big upside party. The bears need to push under 1741 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1742-1747 is sideways action. Price may see a lot of action today at the 1740-1741 level as markets wrestle with their fate. S&P futures are flat to slightly negative about 3 hours before the opening bell. Copper is flat. SPX support levels are 1745, 1733, 1730, 1726, 1722, 1710, 1706, 1697-1698, 1691-1692 and 1685.
Note Added 8:43 AM: The Jobs Report is a low 148K jobs and 7.2% unemployment rate. Folks continue to give up looking for work, hence the rate drops a tick lower, so, instead of a good sign, the lower rate simply masks the underlying trouble (if you are not actively looking for work you are not counted so this helps move the rate lower; once the economy picks up, if it ever does, folks will flood back into the job market and you will actually see the rate pop higher, but this would be good news since the folks will get reabsorbed, the economy is doing better, and in time the rate will reverse and then head lower for the correct reasons). The 148K jobs is a big miss from the 180K consensus but, in these sick, Fed-manipulated markets, bad news is great news, and the S&P futures pop a few handles to +6. The sick numbers means that QE Infinity will continue forever and forget March, maybe QE will continue all the way through 2014? (said jokingly) Party on, Garth. The labor participation rate is flat at multi-year low levels verifying the sick structural unemployment underlying the U.S. economy. The 10-year yield drops to 2.55% so this will bounce interest-rate sensitive stocks such as utilities. Watch UTIL 498.
Note Added 10:13 AM: GTX jumps above 4890 and UTIL above 498. Say no more. The bulls are running. The SPX touches 1748 so it catapults to a HOD at 1756.56 thus far. More new all-time highs. Markets are melting up with the Dow up over 100 points today. Construction Spending data is better than expected so good news is good news and bad news is good news. Bears got nothing unless they can move GTX under 4890 and/or UTIL under 498. VIX drops under 13. Keystone took small profits on NUGT exiting this long trade; it was a wild ride down, then back up. Also bot SSG, the 2x inverse ETF, opening a new position shorting the semiconductors.